The paint is still drying on the 2020 NFL season, and yet we’re already buzzing about 2021. Most of the buzz is focused around the most important position in all of professional sports, the quarterback. With several older QB legends reaching retirement age, and many recent top draft picks already fizzling out, the QB position is in flux for the majority of the league. There are 32 teams in the NFL and there could be as many as 20 quarterbacks starting for a new team next year. We’ve already seen one gargantuan trade with the Rams sending Jared Goff and two first round picks to Detroit for Matt Stafford. It appears the Los Angeles Rams have found their man, and like John Lennon, can sit back and watch the wheels go round and round for the remaining 19 or so teams that want a fresh QB1 for the 2021 season, including Detroit... We’re not convinced Goff was their end game. So, because we love a fool’s errand, we here at The Halftime Snack will attempt to unfog the future and predict each NFL team’s starting quarterback at the start of the 2021 season, and also provide a couple other likely options because as we all know divination is not an exact science.

AFC EAST

New York Jets

It’s going to take more than a new quarterback to help this team and so their focus might be elsewhere. Darnold does not appear to be their future, but he might be suitable for another year or two.

Sam Darnold (40% chance he starts) – When Sam Darnold is healthy, he can be a pretty decent quarterback. Unfortunately, he’s not often healthy, and decent does not make it to the playoffs. Still, Darnold is only 23 years old, and it’s very possible that the Jets give their young quarterback one more shot before they have to make a decision on a long term contract.
Zach Wilson (35%) – The Jets could try yet again to draft their new starting quarterback. They have the 2nd overall pick and over the past couple months BYU’s Zach Wilson has leap frogged Justin Fields as the number 2 quarterback in the draft. Wilson is NFL ready, but it also wouldn’t hurt for him to start the season as the back-up. From a team building perspective, developing a QB on a rookie contract while surrounding talent around him makes sense.
Deshaun Watson (25%) – If the Jets can get a hold of Watson, they certainly will go for it, and probably have the greatest collection of draft assets to get a deal done. But it’s still unclear whether Houston will let him go, and I’m doubtful that Deshaun would want to play for another troubled franchise with a problematic owner like the Jets.

New England Patriots

The Cam Newton experiment did not work for the Patriots in 2020, but it’s very likely they take another chance on a veteran for the start of 2021.

Jimmy Garoppolo (35%) – Belichick helped groom Jimmy G and knows he can get a solid game manager out of him. If the 49ers move away from Garoppolo, a reunion with New England seems likely.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (30%) – Fitzmagic would be a great fit for the Patriots if they were also to draft a rookie, like Alabama’s Mac Jones. Fitzpatrick is one of the most exciting backups in the league, and if the Patriots use him like the Dolphins did in 2020, they could have a very successful “rebuild” season while they develop their QB of the future.
Mitch Trubisky (20%) – Trubisky, like Fitzpatrick, would be a short contract signing for the Patriots. He might start the season and then come in as a reliever once the rookie quarterback the Patriots very likely draft is ready to start. For Trubisky, it would make sense to try to rebuild his value on a short term contract, and try to find success under Josh McDaniels.
Derek Carr (15%) – Carr could be a pretty good fit for the Patriots. His conservative play is more in line with the Patriots than the Raiders, and New England has money to build around him. However, a trade for Carr will likely involve giving up a first-round pick which the Patriots need to desperately retain.

Miami Dolphins

Tua Tagovailoa (70%) – Miami has a pretty good thing going with Tua and we expect them to give him a little more time to develop into the star we all thought he would be in 2018. Tua had a rough rookie season, but there is no reason to give up on him this early (unless ... )
Deshaun Watson (30%) – We think the only path in which Miami does not stick with Tua is if they can get their hands on Watson, and the Dolphins have one of the best chances of getting him if the Texans let him go. It seems like Miami would be a desirable landing spot for Deshaun, with a great coach in Brian Flores and a solid roster.

Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen (100%)

AFC West

Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders have a very talented quarterback on contract already, but we all know Gruden has a wandering eye.

Derek Carr (60%) – Carr had an underratedly good season in 2020 and is still on contract with the Raiders for the 2021 season. He’s still a Top 15 (maybe Top 10) quarterback in this league, and we’re not sure the Raiders are in a position to do better than him. However, we all know Gruden likes to window shop, and if something really shiny attracts his eye, he might go all in.
Deshaun Watson (20%) – Rumors have been flying around that Gruden will offer everything but the kitchen sink for Watson should he become available. But will that be enough?
Matt Ryan (15%) – If the Falcons move on from Matt Ryan, he would be one of the veteran quarterbacks available that would be an upgrade from Carr.
Carson Wentz (5%) – This would be a pretty foolish move for most, but Gruden loves a prototypical drop-back quarterback.

Denver Broncos

They pushed pretty hard for Stafford and it’s clear they want to bring in a veteran quarterback, which is very much on par for Denver. They’ve done this with success in the past (Manning) and other times it’s been not so great (Flacco).

Jimmy Garoppolo (30%) – Jimmy G is not far removed from a Super Bowl appearance, and when he’s healthy, he can be just what Denver needs, a solid contributor who minimizes mistakes.
Matt Ryan (20%) – Matty Ice is still a starting quarterback in this league and could do some serious damage if he had the right team around him. Denver has a good defense and an offense that needs some help, Matt Ryan would help.
Jared Goff (20%) – Like we said in the intro, we’re not convinced Detroit’s end game was Goff. We could see them trading him for a 2nd or 3rd rounder and Denver might jump at that.
Mitch Trubisky (15%) – Even if Drew Lock remains on the roster, the Broncos will definitely bring in a veteran to challenge him. Trubisky would make sense as a low cost option to provide competition, while still having some upside.
Drew Lock (15%) – In the last two years, he’s shown glimpses of stardom but he simply makes too many mistakes. We think he could have a long career as a backup.

Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert (100%)

Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes (100%)

AFC South

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have a lot of young talent and if they could just find a quarterback to build around, they could be a dangerous team.

Trevor Lawrence (90%) – The Jags have the first overall pick and if they keep that pick (and all signs point to “they will”), they’re taking Trevor Lawrence.
Deshaun Watson (5%) – Will Jacksonville trade their first-round pick (and more) to Houston for Deshaun? Jacksonville would have to think hard about that decision. But Deshaun has a no trade clause, and it’s unlikely that he would accept a trade to a bottom feeder team like the Jags.
Gardner Minshew (2.5%) Jake Luton (2.5%) – It’s not likely either of these guys are the future for Jacksonville, but there’s an outside chance one of them starts the season as QB1.

Houston Texans

Deshaun Watson (50%) – Despite them seeming hellbent on doing everything in their power to piss off their franchise QB, The Texans have made it pretty clear that they don’t want to trade Watson even though he clearly wants out. This isn’t the NBA where the players have all the power, so it’ll be interesting to see if Watson prevails.
Tua Tagovailoa (25%) – The most likely trade right now for Houston would be Watson to Miami for Tagovailoa and probably a handful of first rounders. Tua is young and has a ton of talent and so this could be a smart pickup for the Texans if they can’t keep Deshaun.
Sam Darnold and the 2nd overall pick (25%) – Another tantalizing trade would be Watson to the Jets for Darnold, their #2 pick, and likely some more first rounders. The Texans could then draft Zach Wilson or Justin Fields #2 and have a QB battle between their pick and Darnold.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts were one of the teams that went after Stafford hard, so now they’re up chocolate creek without a popsicle stick. Indy is one of the few teams that we know with absolute certainty has to make a move at QB. The rest of the roster is really good, and this team is ready to compete for the Super Bowl if they have the right guy under center.

Carson Wentz (40%) - It seems that Wentz’s time in Philly is coming to an end, and a reunion with Frank Reich seems like the most likely landing spot for him. Wentz was truly awful in 2020, but he has flashed MVP potential in the past. He may be worth the gamble for Indy.
Sam Darnold (30%) - If the Jets decide to move on from Darnold and draft a rookie QB at #2, the Colts would be in a good position to acquire young Sam. Reich would probably feel confident that he could get the most out of Darnold’s untapped talent.
Philip Rivers (10%) – Rivers has reportedly already accepted a high school coaching job, so it seems that his retirement announcement is imminent. But Rivers still played at a decently high level in 2020, so he may be lured back for one more run.
Andy Dalton (10%) – The best thing about the former three-time pro bowler, he comes cheap. Dalton is a free agent next year and so all the Colts would have to give up is a mid-tier contract while they search for the quarterback of the future or take another year to develop their 2020 fourth-round pick Jacob Eason.
Mitch Trubisky (10%) - Another free agent but younger and with more potential than Dalton. However, Trubisky will probably cost a bit more and expect to stay longer.

Tennessee Titans

Ryan Tannehill (100%)

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers

Ben Roethlisberger (70%) – Roethlisberger should probably retire but it looks like he’ll return, and when he does, he’ll probably start off the season as QB1.
Dwayne Haskins (20%) – The Steelers have already signed Dwayne Haskins, but more likely than not he’ll start his career with the Steelers on the bench… if (and this IF seems to be growing exponentially) he stays out of trouble.
Kyle Trask or Mac Jones (10%) – The Steelers are far too good of a team to have a chance at one of the top four quarterbacks in the draft. Lucky for them, this draft is deeeeeep with quarterbacks. They might land Trask or Jones and either one of them could be starters from the get-go.

Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson (100%)

Cleveland Browns

Baker Mayfield (100%)

Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow (100%)

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles

Jalen Hurts (70%) – Moving on from Carson Wentz will cost the Eagles a $34 million salary cap hit (which would be the highest dead cap hit in NFL history). But despite this financial burden, the Eagles are reportedly shopping Wentz aggressively, and a trade seems imminent. Trading Wentz would mean that the Eagles are in full rebuilding mode in 2021, and would be handing the reins over to Jalen Hurts. Hurts took over for Wentz last year and mostly did pretty well, but he wasn’t good enough to be the clear favorite for the starting position. He’ll make training camp very interesting.
Carson Wentz (20%) - Despite the rumors, Wentz is still a relatively young former MVP candidate. Wentz was abysmal in 2020, but it would still be very reasonable for the Eagles to bring him back and give new coach Nick Sirianni the opportunity to try to fix him.
Gardner Minshew (10%) – The Eagles don’t really have the money to bring in a veteran QB, and they have two young quarterbacks already so drafting one doesn’t make a lot of sense. But if they can find a free agent for cheap or trade for someone still on their rookie contract, that might be a creative alternative. Minshew fits that mold.

Dallas Cowboys

Dak Prescott (80%) –Prescott is a very good quarterback, but honestly, the Cowboys are likely the only team willing to back the Brinks truck up to his house. Even if they can’t get a long term deal done, the franchise tag seems likely. On the other hand, he is a free agent with injury problems and the NFL is a business.
Deshaun Watson (20%) - If the Cowboys don’t re-sign Dak, Deshaun might be the only available player for the Cowboys to pick up that wouldn’t cause riots around Dallas and Fort Worth. Jerry Jones loves to make a splash, and we could totally see him giving away a decade’s worth of 1st round picks for Watson.

Washington Football Team

Washington used four different starting quarterbacks in 2020, they are in definite need of some consistency behind the center. They went after Stafford with a desperate fervor, so it’s safe to assume they’re looking for some veteran experience. Their defense is really good, and Terry McLaurin is a fantastic young WR, so Washington could be a legitimately strong team with better QB play.

Cam Newton (30%) – The best thing about Cam Newton, he’s a free agent. If Washington picks up Newton, they’ll want to have a back-up plan, but he may be a good fit for a season and coach Ron Rivera is very familiar with Newton’s play and personality.
Justin Fields (20%) - If they can’t obtain a veteran starter through free agency or trade, expect them to be aggressive in trading up in the draft to target one of the top prospects.
Teddy Bridgewater (20%) – Bridgewater was a solid, consistent starter in 2020. When he’s healthy, he is a mid-tier quarterback and that may be all that Washington really needs right now.
Derek Carr (20%) - It’s clear Gruden isn’t in love with his quarterback, and so if he lets Carr go, expect Washington to make a move as big as they did for Stafford.
Kyle Allen (3.33%)/ Taylor Heinicke (3.33%)/ Alex Smith (3.33%) – We think it’s very unlikely any of last year's starters start the 2021 season for Washington, but these three are still currently on the team so we can’t count them out.

New York Giants

Daniel Jones (80%) – At times, Jones has shown signs of promise. He can extend plays with above average mobility and he has a pretty decent arm. However, he was also responsible for 38 turnovers last season (22 interceptions, 16 fumbles). Yikes! But he’s young and the potential is there. All-in-all it’s probably most logical to give Jones one more year.
Justin Fields or Trey Lance (20%) – The Giants have the 11th pick in the draft and it’s possible one or both of these guys could fall out of the top 10. We don’t think it would surprise anyone if the Giants pulled the trigger.

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers

Jimmy Garoppolo (60%) – Jimmy G was a Super Bowl quarterback just over a year ago. When he’s healthy, he’s in the top half of starting quarterbacks in the league. San Francisco knows they’ll need something great to replace him.
Deshaun Watson (20%) - SF wouldn’t be able to offer as enticing a package as the Jets or Miami, but I would expect the 49ers to put in an aggressive offer for Deshaun. Watson in Kyle Shannahan’s offense would be a beautiful marriage, and the Niners would be an immediate SB contender with him under center. If we were SF, we would offer up the farm to try to get Deshaun.
Mac Jones (10%) – San Francisco has the 12th overall pick, which probably means Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, and Trey Lance will be off the board. However, Alabama quarterback Mac Jones might be a good pick up. He’s got a high football IQ and enough talent for a sculptor like Kyle Shanahan to mold into a masterpiece.
Aaron Rodgers (10%) – Rodgers is probably staying with the Packers, but in the very slight chance he doesn’t, the 49ers would be like a homecoming for the California boy. And for someone who often butts heads with the coaching staff, it also wouldn’t hurt to have the quarterback whisperer Kyle Shanahan on the other end of the headset.

Los Angeles Rams

Matt Stafford (100%)

Arizona Cardinals

Kyler Murray (100%)

Seattle Seahawks

Russell Wilson (100%)

NFC South

Carolina Panthers

They had a pretty disastrous finish to the 2020 season with Teddy Bridgewater and backup QB P.J. Walker. It’s very likely they will look for someone new behind center.

Justin Fields (40%) – The Panthers have the 8th overall pick, and if Fields falls to them, he could very likely be the starting quarterback at the start of the season. Imagine Fields and a healthy McCaffrey in the backfield with offensive mastermind Joe Brady at OC… this would be an electric team to watch.
Teddy Bridgewater (25%) – Bridgewater had a really good first half of the season for the Panthers but was dreadful the second half of the year and finished the season with just 15 touchdown passes and a 64 QBR. Carolina will have to strike out on a few if they are going to settle on Teddy again.
Trey Lance (20%) – Carolina has a better chance of drafting Lance with the 8th pick than Fields, but Lance is less likely to be NFL ready by the start of the 2021 season. It would help if Carolina had a veteran to start the season and eased Lance into QB1.
P.J. Walker (15%) – Walker was Carolina’s backup in 2020 and ended up getting some solid playing time near the end of the season, but he was not particularly impressive. However, he had a stellar XFL season before it was cancelled and he played for Rhule at Temple, so there’s an outside chance he wins the starting spot at the beginning of the 2021 season.

New Orleans Saints

For the first time in fifteen years, it’s looking like the Saints will have a new quarterback to start the season as Brees hangs up his cleats. The good news, it’s a great year to look for a new quarterback. The bad news, the Saints have zero cap space. They’ll probably stick to what they have, or get really creative.

Taysom Hill (40%) – Hill is an electric NFL athlete, but is he an NFL quarterback? We expect him to play a similar role in 2021 as he did in the 2020 season. He might start but he won’t get every snap.
Jameis Winston (40%) – Jameis didn’t get a lot of playing time in 2020, but he’s only one season removed from 5,109 yards passing and 33 touchdowns… along with 30 interceptions. He’s exciting if nothing else.
Drew Brees (15%) – If Brees returns, he’ll be the starter, we just think he’s called it a career.
Kyle Trask or Mac Jones (5%) – The Saints have the 28th pick in the draft and we expect Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, and Trey Lance to have all been picked over by then which leaves Kyle Trask or Mac Jones. If either of these guys get drafted by New Orleans, it’ll be a steep climb to win the starting job over Hill and Winston.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons are another team with a talented quarterback who might be looking for a change. If they want to build around someone, having the #4 pick could be very beneficial.

Matt Ryan (70%) – The Falcons will be in rebuilding mode with a new coach and new general manager, are they going to want to build around a 35-year-old quarterback? Certainly not for long. It’s likely Matt Ryan remains in ATL for one more year, but that won’t prevent them from drafting their QB of the future.
Zach Wilson, Justin Fields or Trey Lance (20%) – Regardless of whether the Falcons trade Ryan, we expect them to draft a quarterback with their #4 pick (Wilson) or trading down to the #8 pick and still getting someone like Justin Fields or Trey Lance. The Falcons aren’t likely to trade Ryan until after June 1st (or it’ll cost them $44 million), and there may not be many interesting vets left to choose from, so grabbing a quarterback in the draft seems very likely.
Marcus Mariota (10%) – If Atlanta drafts a rookie in the first round and trades Matt Ryan, they might pick up a free agent like Marcus Mariota to be the stopgap until their rookie is ready to take the field.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tom Brady (95%) – If he doesn’t retire, which he almost certainly is not going to, he’ll be the starting quarterback for Tampa Bay next year.
Blaine Gabbert (5%) – He already knows the offense.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers

Three weeks ago, there was no question who would be starting quarterback for the Packers in 2021, but one bad playoff game with questionable coaching decisions can change a lot.

Aaron Rodgers (85%) – Aaron Rodgers made it sound like his future with Green Bay was up in the air, but we think it’s very unlikely they let him go.
Jordan Love (10%) – If the Packers do let Aaron go, they have a first-round quarterback waiting in his shadow.
Jacoby Brissett (5%) – If Rodgers leaves and the Packers don’t think Love is quite ready for the spotlight, they might bring in a vet like Brissett. Brissett is a free agent this year and could be a good (cheap) transition until Love is ready.

Chicago Bears

The Bears are really close to being a good team, but they’re missing a reliable quarterback. Most everyone has known for a while that Trubisky is not the answer and the Nick Foles experiment didn’t work either. Chicago will once again be looking for something new.

Carson Wentz (40%) - Chicago is reportedly one of the teams chasing Wentz most aggressively. This move would be a huge risk for the Bears, but Nagy must be confident that he can turn Wentz around and get him back to playing at an MVP level.
Jimmy Garopollo (25%) – Garopollo would be a good fit here if San Francisco decides to move on because he’s consistently consistent. He minimizes mistakes and learns offenses quickly. It’s easy to forget, but just one-year ago he outplayed Patrick Mahomes for the first three quarters of Super Bowl LIV.
Mitch Trubisky (20%) – There’s safety in knowing what you have and what you can expect.
Tyrod Taylor (15%) – Taylor would act more as a stopgap until the Bears could develop a Rookie like Trey Lance if he falls far enough down the draft. Taylor is a pretty safe quarterback who doesn’t take a lot of risks, but also doesn’t turn the ball over much which the Bears need.

Detroit Lions

They’ve already made some big moves, but don’t be surprised if they make a few more before the start of the season.

Goff (75%) – Goff was the #1 overall pick in 2016 and helped the Rams to three playoff appearances including a Super Bowl in the last four years. However, since 2019 he ranks second in the NFL with 38 turnovers.
Justin Fields (15%) – It’s unlikely a rookie would beat out Goff for the starting position, but it’s very possible Detroit takes a QB with their #7 pick and trades Goff before the season starts. They might even trade Goff for a higher draft pick.
Trey Lance (10%) – Similar to Justin Fields, the Lions could draft Lance and trade Goff. If they keep Goff, Lance is even more unlikely than Fields to win the starting spot.

Minnesota Vikings

Kirk Cousins (100%)

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Feb 7 The 2021 NFL Quarterback Carousel