The Halftime Snack NFL Mock Draft
I find the NFL to be a pretty tough hang nowadays. The game is dominated by headlines and underlying agendas that often feel morally dubious and anger-inducing, and it’s becoming increasingly more difficult to get excited about sitting down and watching games all day on Sunday. The NFL Draft, however, still holds a very special place in my heart. The Draft is the most purely fun thing about the NFL, and remains my favorite event on the football calendar. Draft day is all about kids making their dreams come true and forever changing their family’s fortune, and hope springs eternal for fans of all teams in a league with so much parity where quick turnarounds are very achievable with a great draft class. So with that said, let’s jump into some draft projections and discourse. But first, a few ground rules and overarching ideas:
Trades will happen on draft day, so I’m going to project trades. This means that my mock will likely be very very wrong in the end, but I think projecting trades makes things more fun and interesting.
I’m projecting what I think teams will do, not my own preference (because if we were just doing this based on my own preference, Rodrigo Blankenship would be going number 1).
I’m not a big believer in this QB class, and I think that Murray and Haskins are the only elite QB1 prospects in this draft. But QBs are always overvalued (for good reason: striking gold with a top level QB on a rookie contract is the most valuable asset in today’s NFL). So, I’m projecting a total of four QBs going in the first round.
This isn’t a great running back class, and RB has become increasingly devalued in the pro game. When the Chiefs can replace Kareem Hunt without missing a beat, the Rams can pluck chubby C.J. Anderson off the street and into the Super Bowl, and the Broncos can get elite production from an undrafted rookie like Phillip Lindsay, I don’t think it makes any sense to invest a first round pick in a RB. But that being said, I think there will be a big run on RBs in the second and third round, with Alabama’s Josh Jacobs being the gem of this class.
This draft is crazy deep at DT, edge rushers, and offensive line. These are all extremely valuable positions in today’s NFL, so I think the first round will be dominated by these groups.
This is a relatively weak class for CBs and WRs. There is a deep bench of interesting WR prospects, but there is no surefire elite talent like a Odell Beckham Jr. or Julio Jones in this class.
I’ve slicked my hair back like Mel Kiper while writing this mock to get in the proper mindset.
We’re only one week away from draft day, so let’s make some picks:
1. Arizona - Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma
I’m buying in to the buzz that this is happening. The Cardinals have a prime opportunity to get their QB of the future who perfectly matches their coach’s offensive philosophy, while also picking up additional draft capital. Kliff Kingsbury has gone on record to say how much he loves Murray, and he’s a perfect fit for Kingsbury’s version of the air raid passing game. Size is certainly a concern with Murray (although measuring in at 5’10” at the combine was definitely a win for Murray). But I think the size concern is mostly overblown, with the recent success of smaller QBs like Russell Wilson, Drew Brees, and Baker Mayfield showing that size doesn’t matter with the right QB in the right offensive scheme. Murray has elite athleticism and accuracy, and his arm strength is solid. His numbers were just as good (and maybe even slightly better) than Baker Mayfield’s in Lincoln Riley’s offense at Oklahoma, and Murray had only 5 batted balls for the entire 2018 season (fewer than notable tall guys like Drew Lock and Daniel Jones, who had 8 and 12 respectively). I still believe that Josh Rosen has a ton of talent and potential, and he is still only 22 years old (younger than Drew Lock). With this draft’s relatively weak QB crop, I think the Cardinals will be able to get a first round pick back for Josh Rosen from another team desperate for a QB. So in this mock, we’re projecting a trade of Rosen to the Redskins for the #15 overall pick. The Cardinals lack talent across their entire roster, so the opportunity to draft Murray and pick up another elite player in the middle of the first round would be a huge coup for them.
2. San Francisco - Nick Bosa, Edge Rusher, Ohio State
The Niners should be ecstatic if Bosa falls to them at two. They have spent a ton of early draft picks on defensive line in recent drafts (DeForest Buckner, Solomon Thomas, Arik Armstead) and they brought in Dee Ford via trade this offseason. But Bosa is the best pass rusher in the draft, and should be an elite disruptive force much like his brother.
3. NY Jets - Josh Allen, Edge Rusher, Kentucky
The Jets would love to trade down from this position to pick up some additional draft capital, but ultimately Allen is just too good to pass up. Allen is a dynamite pass rusher, with an awesome mix of speed and strength off the edge. He was insanely productive in the SEC (17 sacks, 21.5 tackles for loss last season), and would be a huge addition to the Jets defense.
4. Oakland - Rashan Gary, Edge Rusher, Michigan
John Gruden deservedly caught a lot of flack for the roster moves he made early in his tenure. But Oakland has had a sneaky good offseason, and has filled a lot of holes on their roster with the additions at Tyrell Williams at WR, Trent Brown at LT, Lamarcus Joyner at Safety, and Brandon Marshall & Vontaze Burfict at LB. Quinnen Williams is the best player available here, but Gary is a better fit. The Raiders are fairly stacked at DT, but desperately need pass rush help. Gary’s talent and athletic numbers are off the charts, but he was plagued by a reputation of inconsistent effort and poor production during his time in Ann Arbor. I can see Gruden believing that he can get the most out of a talent like Gary. The ceiling is certainly very high if they can get his motor running on a consistent basis. But keep a close eye on the Raiders on draft day. They have 3 first round picks, and with Mike Mayock now at the helm along with Gruden, I could see Oakland keeping things very weird.
5. Tampa Bay - Devin White, ILB, LSU
The Bucs need an influx of talent all across their defense. Speed in the middle of the field is essential for new defensive coordinator Todd Bowles’ system, and Devin White certainly brings that to the table (his 4.42 40-yard dash time at the combine is insane for a middle linebacker). White has the potential to be a key defensive cog along the lines of a Bobby Wagner. This draft is not deep with speedy middle linebackers, so White is solid value here.
6. NY Giants - Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama
Coming away from this draft without a QB of the future would be a tough look for the Giants. It seems insane that they would go into 2019 with Eli as their starter yet again, but it seems very plausible at this point. It may be a smokescreen, but all the buzz is that GM Dave Gettleman does not favor the idea of taking a QB with this pick. If they don’t go QB, getting Williams here is a great consolation prize. He may be the best interior pass rush prospect since Aaron Donald, and he absolutely dominated at Alabama last season.
7. Jacksonville - Jonah Williams, OT, Alabama
Investing heavily in Nick Foles as your savior at QB seems … questionable. But if you’re going to have an immobile statue of a pocket passer under center, you better give him great protection on the edge. Williams’ stock has taken a bit of a hit throughout the draft process, with the the main criticism being that he lacks elite size and arm length for a left tackle. But I think those concerns are overblown, and shouldn’t overshadow that Williams established himself as the best left tackle in college football lining up against the SEC’s best pass rushers.
8. Denver (*projected trade w/ Detroit) - Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State
I can’t imagine anyone (except maybe John Elway) really believes that Joe Flacco is the answer at quarterback for the Broncos. Flacco is 34 years old, and hasn’t won more than 9 games in a season since 2014. In a division with Patrick Mahomes and Phillip Rivers, you’re not going to contend with Flacco as your QB1. Elway knows that his job is on the line, and I think he trades up to secure the best available QB in this draft with Haskins. While lacking mobility, Haskins has a great arm and has exceptional accuracy (he threw for 50 TDs while completing 70% of his passes at Ohio State last season). Lack of starting experience is a concern, but his talent and sharp football mind are worth betting on.
9. Buffalo - Ed Oliver, DT, Houston
Oliver’s stock took a bit of a hit over the course of his rocky final season at Houston. But man, this dude is still crazy talented. He may be slightly undersized for the DT position, but his quickness is what makes him a special prospect (he ran a blazing 4.71 40 time at his pro day). The comparisons to Aaron Donald may be a bit ambitious, but are not totally outlandish. Oliver faced constant double teams in college, and I believe he could actually be much more productive at the NFL level. Oliver would be a great fit for the Buffalo defense, which was actually sneaky great last year (#2 in DVOA).
10. Detroit (*projected trade w/ Denver) - Montez Sweat, Edge Rusher, Mississippi State
There are off-field and medical concerns with Sweat, but his athletic numbers (ran a 4.41 40 time at 6’6” and 260 lbs) and his productivity (22.5 sacks over the past two seasons) are off the charts. Sweat would be a great addition for a Detroit defense desperate for pass rush help after losing Ziggy Ansah in the offseason.
11. Cincinnati - Drew Lock, QB, Missouri
New head coach Zac Taylor gets the opportunity to choose his QB of the future here. Andy Dalton has proven himself to be a serviceable NFL quarterback, but it has become clear that his ceiling is limited. Lock has a rocket arm and great athleticism, drawing comparisons to a young smokin’ Jay Cutler. The downsides on Lock are small hands (measured at 9 inches, which is even smaller than the notoriously small mitted Alex Smith) and a propensity for bad decision making and turnovers. He’s a real hit or miss prospect, but I think Taylor will believe in his ability to groom Lock’s raw tools into something special.
12. Green Bay - T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa
The Packers should be committed to giving Aaron Rodgers as many weapons as possible as he enters his twilight. Hockenson is a top level tight end prospect, with potential like burgeoning stars George Kittle and O.J. Howard. Hockenson is extremely athletic (4.7 40 time) and is also a great blocker. You’d have to think that Rodgers would be very happy with this pick.
13. Miami - Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida
It’s tough to read what Miami is going to do here. There’s been palpable buzz that the Dolphins may be going full Sam Hinkie and tanking for future drafts, where QBs like Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence will be higher rated QB prospects than any of the signal callers available here. I’m buying into this hype, and I believe that Miami will focus on building a solid foundation in this draft to allow for their eventual QB of the future to be set up for success. Enter Taylor, who many believe is the best tackle in the draft. He has the size and mobility to hold down the left side of the line, and is good value here.
14. Atlanta - Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson
Atlanta has the potential to be back in Super Bowl contention very soon. Matt Ryan and the offense was great last year, even with the dead weight of Steve Sarkisian dragging them down. Adding an elite defensive stalwart like Wilkins would be huge for the Falcons. Having Wilkins lined up next to Grady Jarrett would give Atlanta a really solid front line, and should have them back contending for the NFC South crown next season.
15. Arizona (*projected trade w/ Washington for Josh Rosen) - Clelin Ferrell, Edge Rusher, Clemson
This trade would be a big time win for both the Cardinals and the Redskins. The Redskins desperately need a QB of the future after Alex Smith’s potentially career ending injury. As mentioned above, Rosen is still very young and has a ton of potential (I would rank him as the #3 QB in this draft at worst – behind Murray and Haskins, but definitely ahead of Drew Lock and Daniel Jones). Using the #15 pick on Rosen would be a wise investment for Washington. For Arizona, they just need to add as much talent as possible across their roster. Ferrell has great speed off the snap, and has the potential to be an elite pass rusher opposite Chandler Jones for the Cardinals defense.
16. Houston (*projected trade w/ Carolina) - Andre Dillard, OT, Washington State
The Texans offensive line was an absolute dumpster fire last season. QB Deshaun Watson was sacked an NFL-high 62 times last season, and was hit 133 times. The Texans are desperate for o-line help in this draft, and will trade up to get the best tackle prospect available. Dillard is considered the best pure pass blocking tackle in this draft after dominating in Mike Leach’s offense, and he would be a perfect fit to help fix the Texans offensive line woes.
17. NY Giants - Daniel Jones, QB, Duke
I really don’t see it with Jones. He’s an intelligent player with good size, and had solid production at Duke. He was also coached by the great QB developer David Cutcliffe (who also molded Peyton and Eli Manning). But Jones’ poor arm strength is a real concern. You can overcome arm strength deficiencies in the NFL if you are extremely accurate, but Jones is not accurate either (he completed less than 60% of his passes during his college career). But all the buzz is that GM Dave Gettleman loves Jones, which is not surprising given the Cutcliffe connection and Gettleman’s apparent undying love for Eli Manning. Gettleman is not known for liking to trade up or down in the draft, so I think he will be content to stay here and pick Jones as their QB of the future.
18. Minnesota - Dalton Risner, OT, Kansas State
The Vikings just need to sprint to the podium and take the best offensive lineman available. The criticisms of Kirk Cousins were overblown last year, as his struggles were largely due to having an absolute sieve of an offensive line in front of him. Risner had a great college career at Kansas State, and would be just what the doctor ordered for this offense.
19. Tennessee - Noah Fant, TE, Iowa
This draft should be all about giving QB Marcus Mariota every chance to succeed this season. Mariota is on his 5th year option, so next offseason the Titans will have to make a decision on whether they’re going to commit the big bucks to invest in Mariota long term. Fant is really more like a massive slot receiver than a tight end. He’s not much of a blocker, but he’s extremely athletic (ran a 4.50 40 time), and would be a dynamic pass catching weapon for Mariota in the middle of the field.
20. Pittsburgh - Devin Bush, ILB, Michigan
The Steelers defense has been missing an elite presence in the middle of the field ever since they lost Ryan Shazier. Bush has elite athleticism nearly on the same level of Devin White, and is too special to pass up at this point. His athletic numbers (4.43 40 time, 40.5 inch vertical) are upper echelon, and it’s hard to come by middle linebackers with this sort of athletic range.
21. Seattle - Cody Ford, OT/G, Oklahoma
Seattle’s offensive line has gotten better in recent years, but they could still use an infusion of talent in the trenches. Ford is massive (6’4”, 329 lbs), and dominant in the run game. He can excel at either tackle or guard, and would be a solid addition for Seattle’s run focused offense no matter where he lines up.
22. Baltimore - D.K. Metcalf, WR, Ole Miss
The Ravens should be focused on giving Lamar Jackson as much help as possible in this draft. They desperately need weapons in the passing game, and Metcalf is the best wide receiver talent in this class. Metcalf is an absolutely insane athletic specimen, and may be the most ripped human I’ve ever seen. He ran a crazy fast 4.33 40-yard dash at 6’3”, 228 lbs at the combine. There are some concerns about his neck injury in college, and his relatively slow three-cone drill and short shuttle times at the combine also raise concerns about his lateral agility. But he undoubtedly has the most raw athletic tools of any WR in this class, and would be a great addition to support Lamar Jackson’s development
23. Carolina (*projected trade w/ Houston) - Brian Burns, Edge Rusher, Florida State
Carolina really needs pass rushing help after losing Julius Peppers to retirement this offseason. Burns has elite speed and agility, but power is a concern. He’s added weight this offseason, but still has a very slight frame. But at this point in the first round, Burns’ talent is well worth the gamble.
24. Oakland - Deandre Baker, CB, Georgia
Oakland’s secondary needs help, and Baker would be a great addition. He isn’t the biggest or most athletic cornerback in this draft, but he is a very physical and hard-nosed corner with great tackling ability. His dominance in the SEC should be a big selling point.
25. Philadelphia - Greedy Williams, CB, LSU
Williams is definitely the most athletically gifted cornerback in this class. At 6’2” with a 4.37 40 time, he brings elite coverage traits to the table. The issue with Greedy is that he lacks physicality and sometimes acts like he’s allergic to tackling. But with Philadelphia’s deficiencies in the secondary, Greedy’s potential is great value for the Eagles here.
26. Indianapolis - Jeffery Simmons, DT, Mississippi State
Simmons would have been a top 10 (and maybe even top 5) pick if he hadn't torn his ACL in February. He is an extremely quick and powerful interior pass rusher, and was dominant in the SEC last season. The Colts are well positioned to build for the future, so they can invest in an elite talent like Simmons and give him a red shirt year while he recovers.
27. Oakland - Marquise Brown, WR, Oklahoma
After trading away Amari Cooper, the Raiders could use more weapons in the passing game. Hollywood Brown is one of the fastest and most dynamic receivers in open space I’ve ever seen. He suffered a Lisfranc injury that has prevented him from working out for teams, and his very slight frame (5’9”, 166 lbs) is a concern. But he has Desean Jackson like potential, and would bring some flash and dazzle to the team as they move to Vegas.
28. LA Chargers - Dexter Lawrence, DT, Clemson
The Chargers really need some beef in the middle of their defense, as evidenced by the Patriots absolutely bullying them up front in their playoff game last year. At 6’4” and 342 lbs, Dexter Lawrence would bring a ton of beef and toughness to this defensive front. As an added bonus, Lawrence proved himself to be a weapon in the red zone as a goal line back as well.
29. Kansas City - Garrett Bradbury, C/G, NC State
After losing Mitch Morse to the Bills this offseason, the Chiefs need a new center to protect Patrick Mahomes up the middle. Bradbury is the best center prospect in this draft. He ran a 4.92 40 yard time (crazy fast for a center), and also showed great power with 34 bench press reps at the combine.
30. Green Bay - Juan Thornhill, S, Virginia
Thornhill is a ballhawk with the ability to line up at both corner and safety. He would give the Packers the speedy free safety presence they need in the middle of the field to help cover quick slot receivers and tight ends. There will be a big run on safeties being selected early in the second round, with guys like Johnathan Abram (Mississippi State), Nasir Adderley (Delaware), and Darnell Savage Jr. (Maryland) all rated similarly. But I like Thornhill for the Packers here.
31. LA Rams - Chris Lindstrom, G, Boston College
The Rams add a top level guard prospect to replace Rodger Saffold. Lindstrom started 49 career games for Boston College, and flashed elite athleticism with a 4.91 40 time at the combine. He could be a day one starter for Sean McVay’s offense.
32. New England - Irv Smith Jr., TE, Alabama
The Pats get their Gronk replacement here. Smith Jr. is a great pass catcher in addition to being a very solid blocker in the run game, and would be a useful weapon for Tom Brady and this offense. Plus, we know how much Bill Belichick loves his Alabama players.
