2021 Halftime Snack Mock Draft
Welcome back to the very best part of the year! Buckle up for what promises to be another really strange and exciting draft. With all the pandemic related impacts, this may be one of the most difficult years to evaluate prospects in recent memory. A sizable chunk of the best prospects decided to sit out the 2020 season due to COVID, and those who did play this season did so under unusual circumstances. On top of that, there was no draft combine this year, and teams were not allowed to hold in-person private workouts. These factors have created a great deal of uncertainty, and some real diversity in opinions about some of the top prospects. So be ready for some real surprises on draft day, as teams may have much different evaluations than what is being projected by the media and mock drafters.
A few big picture bullets and notes before we dive in:
Quarterback values are almost always inflated, and we tend to see QBs taken in the first round that are really more like 2nd-3rd round talents. This year, however, there are 5 legitimate first round talents at QB. This doesn’t mean they’ll all pan out (the bust rate for 1st round QBs still sits at about 50%), but all of the top 5 QBs this year are super talented in their own way, and have elite traits worthy of being a top 15 pick. Next year’s QB class is not expected to have nearly as much talent, so expect QB-needy teams to be aggressive this year.
The top talent in this draft is on Offense. The latest that the first defensive player has ever came off the board in the modern draft era was at #7 overall, where Champ Bailey was selected by Washington in 1999. I expect that record to be broken this year, as it’s likely that the first 9 picks will all be on offense.
This is a super deep draft at Offensive Line, Cornerback, and Wide Receiver. Expect a lot of guys from these positions to come off the board in the first round, but there will also be plenty of value to be found at these positions in later rounds.
On the other hand, this draft is quite weak at Edge Rusher and Defensive Line. There are some super talented prospects, but all come with pretty significant question marks or red flags.
As always, drafting a running back in the first round is a bad value proposition. None of the top RB prospects in this class are worthy of making an exception to that rule in my opinion, but you can expect Najee Harris (Alabama), Travis Etienne (Clemson), and Javonte Williams (North Carolina) to all go off the board early in the second round.
San Francisco already made the biggest move of the draft by trading up to #3. Keep an eye now on New England and Denver as the two teams potentially jockeying for position to trade-up, as neither team seems to currently have an established long-term plan at QB.
And finally, it’s time for the most prestigious award of them all: the Zane Beadles Memorial Stinky Offensive Lineman of the Year. We have two very strong and extra stinky finalists for this year’s award:
Jack Anderson, Texas Tech – This is the face of a man who has cleared out grocery store aisles with his monumental crop dusting on many many occasions.
Logan Harris, Wyoming –What an absolute unit. I love him.
Without further ado, let’s slick our hair back like Mel Kiper and do this damn thing.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
Lawrence being the #1 pick has been a foregone conclusion for so long that it’s easy to lose sight of just how special of a prospect he is. Lawrence’s size at 6’6”, along with his superb athleticism/mobility, arm strength, and accuracy are all top-end elite. On top of that, he has also proven to be a fierce competitor who wins on the big stage. From a prospect evaluation standpoint, John Elway and Andrew Luck are probably the only comparable QBs in recent memory with this sort of across-the-board talent. That doesn’t necessarily guarantee success, as Lawrence will be walking into a tough situation with a pretty talent deficient roster in Jacksonville, and I have questions about how Urban Meyer’s schtick will translate to the NFL. But Lawrence certainly has all the tools to turn this franchise around and be one of the greats.
2. NY Jets – Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
The Jets removed any doubt from the equation when they traded away Sam Darnold, and it seems like they’ve decided that Zach Wilson is their quarterback of the future. The main trait that sets Wilson apart is his elite arm talent. He flashes the ability to make crazy plays like this outside the pocket and throw off-platform from multiple arm angles with laser-like strength and accuracy. He plays with an improvisatory playground style that has drawn comparisons to Aaron Rodgers or Patrick Mahomes. Wilson definitely is not as physically talented as those guys, but you can see how evaluators would view his arm talent and knack for making big plays outside the pocket as similarly special. The concern with Wilson is that he played against a lower tier of competition at BYU, and some of the crazy throws he got away with in college may turn into interceptions at the NFL level. But Wilson is a perfect fit for new Jets Offensive Coordinator Mike LaFleur’s scheme, and they are betting that his talent and unique playmaking ability is worth gambling on.
3. San Francisco 49ers – Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
I still kind of don’t believe it, but all signs point to Mac Jones being the guy that the Niners are targeting at #3. I can see the logic with this pick in some ways – Mac Jones is super accurate and a great processor in the pocket, and is a perfect fit for Kyle Shanahan’s quick read scheme. Jones is coming off one of the best seasons in college football history, throwing for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns in 2020 with an insane 77.4% completion percentage en route to winning a national title. Those numbers are extremely impressive, but there is some question about how much of that success should be credited to Alabama’s extraordinary offensive talent last season and the play-calling wizardry of Steve Sarkisian. Jones’ greatest traits are his pinpoint accuracy, elite football IQ, and ability to make quick reads in the pocket. He’s known as a football wiz, with the ability to recite schemes and defenses with an almost photographic memory. He was off target on only 5.9% of his passes in 2020, which is a good indicator of just how accurate of a thrower he is. Despite these traits, I think it’s pretty clear that Jones has a much lower ceiling than guys like Trey Lance or Justin Fields (I’d say that Jones’ ceiling is maybe comparable to someone like Kirk Cousins, or maybe Matt Ryan at best). Jones is relatively inexperienced with only 17 career starts, has mediocre arm strength, and lacks mobility. He’s not a great athlete and doesn’t move super well outside the pocket, and recent history shows that it’s really difficult for QBs to succeed in the NFL today without some degree of mobility (unless you’re Tom Brady). The Niners gave up a king’s ransom to trade into this position, and I have a hard time believing that they would do so for someone with a low ceiling like Jones, rather than a guy like Fields or Lance who have elite traits and superstar potential. But Shanahan deserves the autonomy to pick his guy here – if he views Jones as the ideal football mind to execute his play calling, I don’t doubt that he could be very successful in their offensive scheme.
4. Atlanta Falcons – Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
Atlanta has a fascinating decision to make here, and are likely considering three options: (1) draft their QB of the future, (2) trade down for a bounty of picks, or (3) draft a generational Tight End talent in Kyle Pitts. There is a good argument to be made for all of these options, and the opportunity to draft a local kid and elite talent in Justin Fields may ultimately be too enticing to pass up. But Matt Ryan is still playing at a pretty high level, and there’s enough talent on this roster that it’s not hard to imagine them being much better next year. The new regime led by GM Terry Fontenot and head coach Arthur Smith are probably eager to compete right away, and unless they are blown away by trade offers, I think they will jump at the opportunity to take the best player available and add a uniquely dynamic weapon to their offense. Pitts is considered to be one of the most gifted tight end prospects in modern draft history, and his athletic traits are truly off the charts. He stands 6’6” with an insane 83 inch wingspan, and ran a lightning fast 40 time of 4.44 seconds. Those athletic testing numbers are almost unprecedented at the Tight End position, and are closer to resembling elite WR prospects like Mike Evans or Calvin Johnson than any TE we’ve ever seen. Pitts was also highly productive at Florida last season, with 43 catches and 12 touchdowns in just 8 games. He has also shown to have incredible hands, and didn’t drop a single target last season. The history of picking a tight end this high in the draft is dicey, but Pitts’ talent is truly special, and adding him to a group with Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley could create a devastatingly dynamic offense that will be a matchup nightmare for any opponent.
5. Cincinnati Bengals – Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU
Bengals fans have been arguing the same question for months now: Penei Sewell or Ja’marr Chase? There’s strong cases to be made for both players. Sewell is viewed as a potential Hall of Fame caliber prospect at Left Tackle, and the Bengals certainly need offensive line help after Joe Burrow was constantly under duress last season. But I think the Bengals will ultimately jump at the opportunity to reunite Burrow with his former LSU teammate in Chase. Chase absolutely dominated SEC competition in 2019 at just 19 years old before sitting out last season, and clearly already has a great rapport with Joe Burrow. He isn’t super tall at about 6’1”, but brings elite strength and blazing speed (he ran a 4.38 second 40 at his pro day). His style of play reminds me of peak Dez Bryant, winning contested balls with great leaping ability and strength. If it were me making this pick, I’d take Sewell here. But I think the Bengals will jump at the opportunity to add this dynamic downfield playmaking weapon to their offense, and will leverage the depth of the offensive line class in this draft to grab a tackle or guard at the top of the 2nd round.
6. Miami Dolphins – Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
When the Dolphins traded back from #3, they chose to reinvest some of their draft capital to move back up with Eagles at #6 rather than just trading with San Francisco directly and staying at #12. The belief is that the Dolphins made this move to try to land one of the elite offensive playmakers in the draft, and were hoping that Pitts or Chase would be available for them here. With those guys off the board, they may still consider a WR like Jaylen Waddle, but I don’t think they will be able to pass on the opportunity to take one of the most lauded offensive tackle prospects in recent memory. Sewell sat out last season due to COVID, but put together some of the most impressive tape you’ll ever see for a tackle in 2019, dominating the competition at just 19 years old. Sewell’s blend of size and athleticism is off the charts great for the position, flashing incredible footspeed at the ungodly size of 6’4” and 331 pounds. There are some concerns about his maturity, and he may need some time to become more fundamentally sound. But at only 20 years old, Sewell has all the talent and traits to become one of the best left tackles in football, and the Dolphins will be happy to grab him here to anchor their line and help Tua develop.
7. Denver Broncos (*via trade w/ Detroit) – Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
The Lions are in full rebuilding mode, and are happy to trade down a couple spots and gain some additional draft assets. The Broncos are in a position where they really have no choice but to get aggressive to address their hole at quarterback. We’ve seen enough of Drew Lock to know he’s not the guy, and the rest of the roster is good enough that the Broncos are ready to compete with the right QB in place. Justin Fields is a special QB talent and worthy of consideration here too, but I think new GM George Paton will have fallen in love with Lance’s almost limitless potential. At 6’4” with great arm strength, accuracy, and running ability, Lance may have the highest ceiling of any QB in this draft outside of Lawrence. He’s raw and inexperienced, and only has 17 career starts at the college level after his 2020 season was heavily impacted by COVID. But he’s only 20 years old with tons of room to grow, and would be in an ideal position to sit behind a veteran QB (maybe the Broncos acquire Teddy Bridgewater as well?) for a year as he develops. Lance’s incredible 2019 season showcased his tantalizing potential, where he threw for 28 TDs with zero interceptions, and also rushed for over 1,100 yards. Lance is also known for having a super high football IQ, and was given a lot of responsibility in running a pretty advanced NFL-style offense at North Dakota State and has already demonstrated an advanced ability to diagnose coverages. Lance’s development is no sure thing, but he has all the traits and potential to be the elite NFL quarterback that the Broncos will need to be able to compete in a division with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert.
8. Carolina Panthers – Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
Justin Fields to Carolina is a rumor that has been gaining steam in recent days, and I’m now inclined to believe that it’s going to happen if Fields falls to #8. When the Panthers made the move to acquire Sam Darnold, I think we all assumed that they would give him a shot to be their quarterback of the future. But the reality is, Darnold is only on the books for a meager $5 million this year, and they can walk away from him after this season without any salary cap hit whatsoever. It is widely known that Panther’s owner David Tepper and coach Matt Rhule are desperate to have a superstar QB (they were going hard after Deshaun Watson before the allegations against him came to light), and I think the allure of Fields’ otherworldly talent will be too enticing for them to pass on here. Fields is the fastest QB prospect since Robert Griffin III (he ran a blazing fast 4.44 second 40 time at his pro day), and has elite accuracy and arm strength. He’s also super intelligent (he had offers from Harvard, Yale, and Northwestern coming out of high school), and that blend of athleticism, accuracy, and football intelligence is really rare. On top of that, Fields is also tough as nails, and a proven winner on the big stage. The main criticism against Fields is that he can be a bit slow in his reads and progressions, and tends to hold on to the ball for too long. But this was somewhat due to the design of Ohio State’s big play hunting offense, and I believe that Fields would be super successful in Matt Rhule’s scheme with weapons like Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore around him. Sitting behind Darnold for a while may be the best case scenario for Fields, and he has all the tools to be Carolina’s potential star quarterback of the future.
9. Detroit Lions (*via trade with Denver) – Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern
The Lions need help almost everywhere on their roster, so every position is on the table for them here. New head coach Dan Campbell has expressed a desire to get tougher and more physical, and bringing in an elite offensive line talent like Rashawn Slater would certainly fit the bill. Some evaluators think so highly of Slater that they have him rated even higher than Penei Sewell. Though he isn’t quite the physical freak that Sewell is, Slater brings three years of starting experience, positional flexibility, and a great blend of strength and athletic ability. Slater was incredible in 2019, allowing only 5 QB pressures and zero sacks. Many evaluators point to his 2019 game versus Ohio State in particular as a highlight, where Slater matched up directly against Chase Young that game and pretty much totally shut him down. His arm length is a bit shorter than ideal for a tackle prospect, so his best fit may ultimately be at Guard. But I think the Lions would love the idea of being able to use him at either Right Tackle or Guard, and having him anchor their offensive line of the future along with Taylor Decker. The Lions rebuild will take some time, but adding the talent and versatility of Slater to build through the trenches would be a great first step.
10. Dallas Cowboys – Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
The first nine picks all being on offense is a great outcome for Dallas, as they would now have their choice of the top defensive prospects on the board. The secondary has been a huge problem for the Cowboys for years now, and drafting Surtain to pair with Trevon Diggs would finally give them stability and elite talent at the position. Surtain has ideal size and length at 6’2” 208 lbs that would allow him to match up well with just about any WR he faces. He’s not flashy, but he is super consistent and competitive, and he very rarely gets beat. Playing at the level he did in the SEC for 38 consecutive starts at Alabama is super impressive, and the Cowboys should be confident that Surtain has a very high floor and will be a valuable stalwart of their defense for years to come.
11. New York Giants – Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
It may seem crazy that another Alabama wide receiver would be drafted ahead of Heisman trophy winner Devonta Smith, but I think it’s going to happen. The reason that Waddle will probably ultimately get drafted ahead of Smith is that every team in the NFL is looking for their own unstoppable weapon like Tyreek Hill. Waddle flashes that sort of potential, with sprinter-like speed and amazing ability to stretch the field and make plays in space both as a pass catcher and a kick returner. Though he was unable to run a 40 time in the pre-draft process, he has reportedly ran in the high 4.2’s or low 4.3’s in the past. That speed certainly shows up in his highlights, where he consistently blew the doors off SEC defenders during his time at Alabama. He’s coming off an ankle injury, and there is certainly an inconsistent track record in drafting speedy wide receivers at his size. This is a make-or-break year for QB Daniel Jones’ development, and the Giants offense desperately needs a speed element to go along with their free agency addition of Kenny Golladay. They are taking the gamble here that Waddle turns into a Tyreek Hill caliber weapon, and not a dud like Corey Coleman or John Ross.
12. Arizona Cardinals (*via trade w/ Philadelphia) – Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama
The Eagles are in rebuilding mode, and are more than happy to trade down yet again to acquire more future draft capital. Arizona added J.J. Watt and A.J. Green this offseason, and are clearly willing to get aggressive to win now. Trading up for an elite playmaking talent like Smith would add a whole new level of excitement to an already dynamic offense with Kyler Murray. Smith is coming off one of the greatest seasons for a wide receiver in the history of college football, where he had 117 receptions for 1,826 and 23 touchdowns en route to a Heisman Trophy and national title. He was absolutely unguardable, and dominated in the College Football Playoffs even when defenses were totally focused on trying to stop him. The reason why Smith is seemingly dropping down projected draft boards is because NFL teams are really scared off by Smith’s lack of size. He weighed in at only 166 lbs at the medical combine, and there isn’t much precedent for a WR with that slight of frame being successful at NFL level (there are only three WRs drafted since 2000 who are over 6 feet tall and weigh less than 175 lbs who have even caught 30 passes in the NFL – Todd Pinkston, Titus Young, and Paul Richardson). So Smith’s success in the pros would be an outlier, and teams are worried that he may struggle to stay healthy, or won’t be able to consistently get off press coverage from the big physical cornerbacks in the NFL. Personally, I’m still a big believer that Smith can be great at the NFL level. Though he doesn’t have elite top-end speed like Waddle, Smith has great footspeed, changes direction on a dime, and consistently gets open by being one of the greatest route runners we’ve ever seen. He has an insanely advanced understanding of how to find holes in the defense, and would be a perfect fit for Kliff Kingsbury’s spread offense. The dream comparable for Devonta Smith is the similarly slight-of-build Marvin Harrision. If a Kyler-Devonta pairing is even a fraction as successful as Manning-Harrision, the Cardinals should be ecstatic about this pick.
13. L.A. Chargers – Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
This one is pretty simple: the Chargers desperately need O-Line help for Justin Herbert, and I think they’ll take the best one available here. Darrisaw is a fast-rising prospect who checks all the boxes for a high quality level left tackle. He has good size at 6’5”, and moves with great quickness and agility. He’s also coming off an awesome season in 2020, where he only allowed 6 QB pressures, and zero sacks. He is criticized for not always playing with a ton of aggressiveness, and having some underdeveloped technique that needs refining. But nabbing someone with Darrisaw’s talent and athletic gifts to protect Herbert’s blind side for the foreseeable future is a slam dunk pick for the Chargers at this slot.
14. Minnesota Vikings - Jaelan Phillips, Edge Rusher, Miami
Head coach Mike Zimmer expressed disgust with his defense after last season, saying it was the worst he had ever coached. Those are strong words, especially considering his own son was the co-defensive coordinator. So I definitely expect the Vikings to focus on defense with this pick. Jaelan Phillips is a fascinating prospect. He was the #1 recruit in the country coming out of high school, but his college career was totally derailed by injury. He suffered a severe wrist injury after being hit by a car, and then suffered several concussions that led to him leaving UCLA and retiring from football altogether for a period of time. He then transferred to Miami to resume his career, and put together an awesome season in 2020 with 8 sacks and 15.5 tackles for loss. His measurements and athletic testing numbers are incredible, and are reminiscent of elite prospects like Nick Bosa or Myles Garrett. The injuries are obviously very concerning, and are a major red flag for teams. But he’s worth the risk at this point in the draft, and he has the upside to be a top-end NFL pass rusher.
15. New England Patriots – Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
While many are still predicting that the Patriots will get aggressive to trade up for a quarterback, I think that is unlikely at this point. Bill Belichick is obsessed with the value of acquiring draft assets, and I don’t think he will be willing to give up the bounty of picks that it would take to trade into the top 10 for a QB. Given recent comments out of San Francisco, it seems like they may now make Garoppolo available via trade, and a Jimmy G reunion in New England seems like the most logical outcome (I think a trade of Garoppolo to the Patriots for a 2nd round pick would make sense for both sides). With QB off the table, Belichick can go his preferred route of taking the best player available on his board. The son of former Pro Bowl WR Joe Horn, Jaycee has been a highly touted prospect since high school. He’s a long, quick, and super physical corner who excels in press man coverage. He ran a 4.39 second 40 and had a 42 inch vertical jump at his pro day, which are super impressive athletic numbers for someone with his size and physicality. He can get a little over aggressive and grabby at times, and there is concern that he may get flagged for a lot of penalties early in his NFL career. But watching him matchup and shut down the top WRs in the SEC for three years as a starter is super impressive, and Belichick will love the competitiveness and toughness he will bring to their defense. With Stephon Gilmore and J.C. Jackson entering the last year of their contracts, Jaycee Horn can be the building block of the Patriots’ secondary of the future.
16. Philadelphia Eagles (*via trade with Arizona) – Alijah Vera-Tucker, OG, USC
After trading back again to add more draft capital for their rebuild, the Eagles can now look to add a foundational piece for their offensive line to help set Jalen Hurts up for success. Vera-Tucker excelled playing left tackle for the Trojans, but projects as a high-level guard at the NFL level due to his shorter arm length. Vera-Tucker is a rock solid prospect, with great size, balance, and athleticism. He has the potential to be a Zack Martin-like presence for the Eagles, with the ability to play Guard at an All-Pro level, while also being able to swing out and take snaps at Tackle if needed. The Eagles offensive line has been a long running problem, and adding a versatile talent like Vera-Tucker would be a great addition for their group.
17. Oakland Raiders – Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State
It’s a fool's errand trying to predict what John Gruden is going to do in the draft, as he has made some bizarre first round picks in recent years with the selections of Clelin Ferrell and Damon Arnette which were widely viewed as massive reaches and poor value picks. The Raiders made more peculiar decisions this offseason by essentially blowing up their offensive line by trading away former stalwarts Trent Brown and Rodney Hudson. So their formerly highly-touted offensive line is suddenly now a weakness, and they have a big hole to address at Right Tackle. Jenkins has a big frame and plays with a lot of aggression and power, and I could see Gruden falling in love with his mauler mentality.
18. Miami Dolphins – Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
With an extra first round pick in their pocket here, the Dolphins are in the position to grab the super talented Parsons who has fallen down the board a bit. Parsons was a top-10 recruit coming out of high school and was once viewed as a potential top 5 pick, but after sitting out the 2020 season and having some character concerns pop up, there is a chance that he drops down to Miami here. If he does, the Dolphins would be happy to take the leap and invest in his immense talent. He has insane speed (4.39 second 40 time) for his size (6’3” and 235 lbs), and has all the range you look for in an ideal modern NFL linebacker. He is strong against the run, has the speed to drop back into coverage and matchup with WRs/TEs in the passing game. He also flashes some exciting pass rushing potential, and could be utilized as an edge rusher in certain packages. His success will depend a lot on how he is utilized, but coach Brian Flores is a great defensive mind and could turn Parsons into a star.
19. Washington Football Team – Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB/Safety, Notre Dame
Though you’ll see him listed as a Linebacker, Owusu-Koramoah really has much more in common with elite safeties like Derwin James and Jamal Adams. He’s super rangy and is a tackling machine, but what makes him truly special is his explosive speed and ability to excel in coverage. He was all over the field for Notre Dame’s defense, and often looked like he was being shot out of a cannon. Whoever drafts him will have to get creative in how they use him, as Owusu-Koramoah doesn’t really have a set position and is somewhere in between a Linebacker and a Safety at 6’1” and 220lbs. But if they find a way to maximize his crazy athletic talents and Tasmanian Devil play style, Owusu-Koramoah could be a really special defensive playmaker.
20. Chicago Bears – Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss
Poor Bears fans. After the disastrous Trubisky experience followed by the failing to recapture the Nick Foles magic, the Bears are now moving forward with the extremely milquetoast Andy Dalton. While he’s had a fine and maybe even underrated career, Dalton looked utterly mediocre with the Cowboys last year, and there was much more offensive talent to work with in Dallas than there is in Chicago. But no matter who is playing QB, the Bears desperately need more playmaking weapons at receiver. Though he’s probably most well known for his infamous Egg Bowl celebration, Elijah Moore is a super dynamic and exciting player. He had an incredible 2020 season, where he had 86 catches and averaged 149 receiving yards per game. He has break away speed with a 4.35 second 40 time, and plays with a lot of strength and competitiveness despite only being about 5’9”. His playmaking ability would be a very welcome addition to the Bears stagnant offense, and would be a great speed weapon to pair with Allen Robinson.
21. Indianapolis Colts – Azeez Ojulari, Edge Rusher, Georgia
The Colts would have loved to grab a Left Tackle, but with all the top OT prospects off the board here, they will turn instead to addressing their gap at pass rusher. After Jaelan Phillips, there are a lot of differing opinions about who is the next best edge rusher in this class. Some teams may prefer Kwity Paye or Jayson Oweh as prospects, but I think the Colts would jump at the opportunity to take Ojulari here. He has elite length and explosiveness off the edge, and flashed a ton of potential by logging 12.5 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks last season. He’s pretty raw, but at just 20 years old there is a lot of room for him to improve his technique and be a great pass rusher at the next level.
22. Tennessee Titans – Kwity Paye, Edge Rusher, Michigan
The Titans’ defense desperately needs some pass rushing punch, and Paye would be a great addition here. Paye has an amazing story, having come from being born in refugee camps in Africa before making his way to Michigan and turning himself into a first round prospect. Paye’s athletic testing numbers are off the charts, flashing explosive speed and strength with a 4.52 second 40 time and 36 bench press reps at his pro day. That speed and explosiveness is rare at his size of 261 lbs, and shows his potential to become a top-end NFL pass rusher. Unfortunately Paye’s talent didn’t always show up on film, and he seemed to disappear and not make much of an impact for stretches during his time at Michigan. But he has a great work ethic and lots of room to grow and develop his technique and instincts, and would be a great investment for the Titans here.
23. New York Jets – Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern
After grabbing their QB of the future at #2 overall, the Jets could really go just about anywhere with their second first round pick. There are needs all across this roster, so they should really just take the best player available on their board here. Newsome would be a great pick for new head coach Robert Saleh to start fixing the Jets’ leaky defense, which may have been the worst unit in the league last season. Newsome is long and super fast, and has flashed great playmaking and tackling ability. He had some injuries throughout his college career, but Newsome’s awesome pro day performance where he ran a 4.38 second 40 with a 40” vertical jump put any concerns about his health or athleticism to bed. Saleh will love his intelligence, competitiveness and toughness as well.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers – Creed Humphrey, Center, Oklahoma
Maurkice Pouncey’s retirement has left a big hole for the Steelers at the Center position on the offensive line. At this point in Ben Roethlisberger’s career where he’s about as mobile as a statue, it is super important for the Steelers to give him great protection, especially from the interior pass rush. There are a couple of really good Center prospects in this class, including Alabama’s Landon Dickerson who would have definitely been a first round pick if not for multiple ACL tear injuries. Creed Humphrey is coming off an illustrious career at Oklahoma, where he earned second team All American and the Big 12 Offensive Lineman of the Year award as a sophomore. Known as a great leader with superb football IQ and toughness, Humphrey would be a stabilizing presence for any offensive line. He’s not a flashy pick, but he should be a steady and reliable starter for many years to come.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevon Moehrig, Safety, TCU
The Jags’ depth chart at safety is a massive question mark right now, and they desperately need a versatile playmaker to anchor their secondary. A former four-star cornerback recruit, Moehrig established himself as one of the best safeties in the country during his time at TCU, having won the Jim Thorpe award as the best defensive back in the country for the 2020 season. He brings an ideal blend of size and speed, with the talent and ball skills to excel in coverage. Those coverage capabilities at safety are crucial in today’s NFL to be able to match up with the uber-athletic tight ends and shifty slot receivers, and Moehrig would be a great addition to bring stability to the Jags’ back end.
26. Cleveland Browns – Jayson Oweh, Edge Rusher, Penn State
After years of losing a lot of games and grabbing a ton of draft assets along the way, the Browns have officially arrived as a contender, and are suddenly a really deep roster without many glaring holes. They added Jadeveon Clowney this offseason to bolster their defensive front seven, but are still looking for some additional pass rushing punch opposite Myles Garrett. Jayson Oweh is immensely talented with boatloads of upside. He ran an insanely fast 4.36 second 40 time at 6’5” and 252 pounds, and has freaky athletic traits for a dude at his size. He has a super quick first step, and has the size and speed to cause problems for any offensive line. The downside with Oweh is that those traits very rarely translated into any actual production during his time at Penn State, as he didn’t log a single sack last season. That lack of production is a little concerning, but the Browns are happy to bet on his talent here, and know that they can use him situationally early in his career and allow him the time to further develop.
27. Baltimore Ravens – Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
To take Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ passing attack to the next level, they really need an explosive outside wide receiver who can be a big play threat for their offense. Rashod Bateman would be a perfect fit for the Ravens’ scheme, and would provide that much needed presence on the outside. Bateman had a weird year with COVID in 2020, but he flashed amazing potential in his 2019 season where had over 1,200 receiving yards and averaged 20.3 yards per reception. His super quick feet and exceptional hands have drawn comparisons to guys like Michael Thomas and Antonio Brown. Pairing him with Hollywood Brown would be a great step to add some more dynamic passing weapons for Lamar Jackson to work with.
28. New Orleans Saints – Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa
The Saints are one of the league’s biggest mysteries. They still have one of the deepest and most talented rosters in the NFL top-to-bottom, but how the quarterback position will unfold in the post-Drew Brees era is a huge question mark. They seem to be comfortable rolling with Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill this season, so they can turn to addressing their need for greater playmaking pop at Linebacker. Zaven Collins is one of most exciting players to watch on film, as he towered over opponents and completely athletically overwhelmed them with this 6’5” 260 pound frame. He had an astounding 2020 season, having won the Bronco Nagurski Award and earning first team All-American honors with 11.5 tackles for loss, 4 sacks, and four interceptions (including his amazing 96-yard game winner versus Tulane). He has freakish speed and athleticism for his size, and would be a dynamic three-down playmaker for the Saints’ defense.
29. Green Bay Packers – Jamin Davis, LB, Kentucky
Jamin Davis is a fast-rising prospect, despite only starting 11 games during his college career at Kentucky. He flashed incredible potential in that limited playing time, having notched an impressive 102 tackles and 3 interceptions during the 2020 season. His profile as a potential first-round pick grew even further after his astounding pro day performance, where he ran a 4.37 second 40 time with a 42-inch vertical jump. Those athletic traits are special, and show the potential for Davis to become an elite linebacker with both coverage and pass rush capabilities at the NFL level. Green Bay fans will be yearning for a wide receiver yet again, but the opportunity to add a guy with elite defensive playmaking capabilities like Davis at the end of the 1st round will be too enticing for the Packers to pass up.
30. Buffalo Bills – Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
The Bills have a deep and talented roster, but could still use some additional depth at cornerback across from Tre'Davious White. Caleb Farley is probably the most talented cornerback prospect in this draft, even more so than Patrick Surtain and Jaycee Horn. He has great size at 6’2”, and incredible speed (he’s been logged running a 40 time in the 4.2’s). He dominated as a sophomore in 2019, earning All-ACC honors and establishing himself as one of the best cornerbacks in the country before sitting out the 2020 season due to COVID. However, Farley’s stock took a major hit with news that he recently underwent surgery on his back. The back injury and subsequent surgery is the same one that Tiger Woods underwent, which is … definitely not what you want in your cornerback prospects. He also suffered a torn ACL in college, so the medical red flags are glaring. But his medical checks are allegedly promising a full recovery, and you hope that he will be able to fully bounce back given his age. Farley would probably be a top 10 pick if not for his injuries, and if he does recover and stay fully healthy, he has the traits to be an absolute steal for the Bills here.
31. Baltimore Ravens (*via trade from Kansas City) – Sam Cosmi, OT, Texas
Having just traded away tackle Orlando Brown to the Chiefs, the Ravens will be looking to re-bolster their depth on the offensive line. A three year starter at tackle for Texas, Cosmi would bring experience and prototypical athletic traits to the position. He’s got great size at 6’6”, and demonstrated elite athleticism and strength at his pro day, with a 4.8 second 40 time and 36 bench press reps. Some teams may prefer other borderline first round offensive tackle prospects like Alex Leatherwood from Alabama or Dillon Dadunz from North Dakota State, but I think the Ravens would value Cosmi’s blend of starting experience and top-end athletic traits.
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
The Super Bowl champs reloaded this offseason, and are pretty well stocked across their roster to compete for a title yet again in 2021. Todd Bowles’ defense was a revelation last season, and their ability to defeat Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs was largely thanks to the pass rushing pressure that their defensive front seven was able to generate. Vita Vea and Ndamukong Suh will both be back for 2021, but Bowles is always looking to keep his defensive lineman fresh by constantly rotating in different guys. Enter Christian Barmore, a long and explosive defensive tackle who had a dynamite 2020 season, capped by him winning defensive MVP honors in the National Championship game. Barmore is super explosive off the line of scrimmage, and is able to generate interior pass rush and cause disruption in the backfield with sacks and tackles for loss. There are character concerns with Barmore, as it has been reported that he clashed with Nick Saban and the Alabama coaches. He also disappears at times, and doesn’t always seem to play with consistent effort. The Bucs may choose to go towards Washington DT Levi Onwuzurike instead if they’re uncomfortable with Barmore’s character fit in their locker room, but Barmore is the most talented defensive tackle prospect in this class, and would add yet another weapon to their already great defensive front seven.
