A 2020 NFL Review (Weeks 1-3) Through the Filter of Fantasy Football
This is the first installment of what will be a tri-weekly recap of the 2020 NFL Season through the nearly transparent filter of fantasy football. Think of these articles as primarily recaps but with a few fantasy football tidbits and tips. The points are based off of ESPN fantasy points, players do not get points for receptions, each team has one defensive player, and players are selected through an auction draft.
Week 1 - Dominated by Youths
It’s been a wild year and I think we all expected a wild season, but quite surprisingly, it felt fairly normal. As long as you ignored the empty stadiums and the fogged-up face shields, you could trick yourself into thinking it’s not the end of days… which is why we watch sports in the first place. Despite the delayed off-season workouts and lack of preseason, we saw some high caliber football and quality playmakers.
Of all the quality playmakers this league has to offer, it probably came as a bit of a surprise to most that Josh Jacobs was the most stellar in week one. Jacobs and his band of travelling Carnies (carnival folk… small hands, smell like cabbage) showed up in Charlotte and put on an offensive show. Jacobs had 93 yards rushing with 3 rushing touchdowns and an additional 46 receiving yards for 31 fantasy points. It’ll be interesting to see if those who drafted him hit pay-dirt with Josh “The Greatest Showman” Jacobs or if Jacobs is just another Jingleheimer-Schmidt. Either way, we’ll have something to shout about.
Alternatively, we’ve been thrown into a state of shock with some of the more tried and true quarterbacks of the last couple decades changing their colors this year (Tom, Cam, Phil). Looking like a pimped-out banana, Cam sashayed into week one brimming with confidence, and it wasn’t only the pregame wardrobe he made look good. He wore his new jersey well and had a solid first game with the Patriots (25-points). Phil, on the other hand, looked like the same old Phil (maybe it was the move from a blue team to a blue team), losing a close one in the fourth quarter and not impressing many in the fantasy world (14-points). But the big story was Brady. Forty-three-year-old Brady looked like a 40-something-year-old human in that silver and red dome. He gutted out 19 fantasy points thanks in large to a 1-yard touchdown run, but the only thing quick about Brady right now is his trajectory towards the broadcast booth. Looking forward to watching his last few games of the season.
With such a minimized offseason, it appears the young guys have the advantage early on. Opening night, we saw Clyde Edwards-Helaire slice up the Houston defense like the names on Arya Stark’s List. Later, we witnessed rookie Chase “Ice in his Veins” Young and the often thought to be dead Washington Football Team emerge out of nothingness and claim the souls of Carson Wentz and the Philadelphia Eagles. Meanwhile, second year receiver DK “body by Khal Drogo” Metcalf scorched the Atlanta secondary like the sun over the Dothraki Sea.
The season is far too young to make any confident predictions, but it’s looking favorable to the managers who put their confidence in young (maybe naïve) players. It never hurts to get a fast start particularly in a year that could be cut short at any moment. Now might be the time to invest in the youth and steal a few games early on. Or perhaps week two will flip the script? This fantasy business wouldn’t be fun if it was easy.
Week 2 - A New Cast
It didn’t take long for the NFL and Fantasy Football to feel like 2020. The first week of the season followed the script like a Michael Bay movie. The good and bad guys (Boys*) were made abundantly clear in the first few minutes and no one deviated far from the script. However, week two gave us some Apatow level improv and Fincher-esque plot twists... Like when it seemed crazy for the Jaguars to trade Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles and start Gardner Minshew back in the Spring, but now Minshew has 6 TDs in two games and Foles couldn’t win the starting job over Mitch “Panic Room” Trubisky in Chicago.
Some of the biggest improvisations made this week were from teams trying to fill in the gaps left behind by injured players like Drew Lock, Courtland Sutton, Saquon Barkley, Jimmy Garoppolo, Christian McCaffrey, Nick Bosa, and the list goes on. It was like the beginning of an SNL season with an entirely new cast… except of course Kenan Thompson. There will undoubtedly emerge a few new stars (see Justin Herbert's 21 points) and we'll most likely see the alteration of some strategies. Although much is unclear about the future, we can always rely on the Broncos to desperately throw in a new/old name and pray for some miraculous comeback tour. (Note: It was unfair of me to compare Eddie Murphy in any way to Blake Bortles, Blake at his best is maybe a Chris Kattan).
Despite the injuries of some major impact players, week two produced a meteor shower of heavy scorers. In week two, 6-players (compared to only 1 in week one) had the fire to light up the night and streak for more than 30-point games (including Aaron Jones with 40 and Dak Prescott with 39) causing many owners to shut their eyes and take evasive action. Meanwhile, the owners with these supercharged players will certainly try to harness that celestial energy for the remainder of the season.
Week two didn’t skimp on adversity. Already line-ups are being altered and sure-things are becoming surly-nots. Fortunately, we have a lot of time to make adjustments, but you also don’t want to be playing catch-up all season long. It’s too early to fret, but it’s not too early to consider some dramatic changes. It may be time to ask yourself, has the trade season begun?
Week 3 - Curses
In week three I eat my words. I’ve made some heady claims and pungent predictions the last two weeks, and now I must stand in front of the firing squad and take my hits. It’s true, I insinuated that it was Gardner Minshew’s turn to shine, that he wasn’t going to be stopped this year. Instead, he chucked an interception, lost a fumble, and threw ZERO touchdowns in week 3. I went on to comment that Nick Foles, who lost the job in Jacksonville to Minshew, wasn’t even good enough to take the starting role in Chicago over Mitch Trubisky. Again, it is as if I spoke the contrary into existence. Nick Foles took over in Chicago and sparked a 20-point comeback with 3 touchdown passes. And finally (but I’m sure this won’t be the last time I stick my foot in my mouth), I implied that a couple quarterbacks who recently changed their stripes, were getting too old to pull off their new threads. Since Week 1, Tom Brady and Phillip Rivers are a combined 4-0 with 6 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. The new kids are pretty good. They might not be starting fantasy quarterback material, but they’re definitely worth looking into as back-ups.
As we’ve creeped into October and now have a handful of winless teams, is it time to talk curses? The Broncos, Vikings, Texans, Falcons, Giants, and Jets are all 0-3, and let’s not forget the 0-2-1 Eagles and Bengals... doesn’t it somehow feel worse to have a tie in there? Of these eight winless teams, it’s no surprise that there have been some impactful injuries and a lack of leadership, but could there be more at play, something perhaps incorporeal affecting some of these teams?
The curse on Minnesota teams is maybe the most well-known active curse. The four major professional sports league (NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL) teams in Minnesota have not won a championship since the 1991 Minnesota Twins. They’ve dubbed this curse in Minnesota The Curse of the Flying Objects because they tend to lose big playoff series to teams with mascots that can fly… the 2020 Twins just got swept by the Astros (short for Astronauts, people who fly to outer space) in the AL Wildcard series. Moreover, the Twins haven’t won a single playoff game in 18 tries! But let’s get back to football, the 0-3 Vikings haven’t yet played a team with a flying nickname so maybe this curse doesn’t quite apply; however, Kirk Cousins’ passes have mostly looked like lame ducks, and his poor performance in the first 3 weeks (he’s averaging 12.7 fantasy points a game) is certainly part of the reason for their winless start. Alternatively, when they keep the ball on the ground (Dalvin Cook is averaging 19.3 fantasy points a game) they look a lot more like a championship-ish team… as long as they don’t come across the Seahawks, Eagles, Falcons, Cardinals, Ravens, or Jets in the playoffs.
The next most obvious curse has to be the one placed on the New York football teams (not counting the Bills). This season in the Jets and the Giants combined six games, they’ve scored a collective 75 points. Nineteen teams have scored at least that many points by themselves in their first three games. Furthermore, neither team has had a winning record since 2016. For decades it was only the Jets that were cursed, but in recent years the New York Football Giants have looked as bad if not worse. It’ll take some Einstein level brain power to earnestly imagine either team winning more than 4 games this season. The silver lining is that if they don’t blunder their draft (which both are known to do) they’re in prime position to end up with Trevor Lawrence. Is it too early to give this curse a name? The curse of East Rutherford? Curse of the Meadowlands?
Week four sees a slew of winless teams facing off against each other. I’m not sure this is the recipe for the potion that breaks the curse, but it will be a good indicator of how strong that potion will need to be. If you have players on one of these winless and cursed teams, they might be worth holding onto for one last week, especially if they are one of the last remaining healthy players. That being said, I wouldn’t put any faith in any of these 0-3 quarterbacks aside from maybe Deshaun Watson.