This is the third installment of what is a tri-weekly recap of the 2020 NFL Season through the nearly transparent filter of fantasy football (find the second installment here and the first installment here). Think of these articles as primarily recaps but with a few fantasy football tidbits and (take ’em with a grain of salt) tips.

Week 7 - Cheat Codes

We’re all looking for that secret weapon or the cheat codes to win each week. As the year progresses, and we more frequently encounter the loss of players to injury, COVID, or bye; we become more desperate to scrape points out of unlikely sources. Ideally, a relatively unknown player emerges mid-season and can make up for the inevitable dip in production… this becomes your secret weapon. In years past, this has been players like Derrick Henry in the 2018 season who had 11 of his 12 touchdowns in the last 9 weeks or DeVante Parker in 2019 who averaged 100.25 yards/game in the second half of the season compared to just 50.0 yards/game in the first half of the season.

However, finding this secret weapon is rare. Instead, cheat codes may be your best option. Unfortunately, we can’t insert a game genie cartridge, but we can still get the codes with a little research and data analysis. The stats are out there and if we know how to decipher them, the trend lines may be able to give us a bump in production from a variety of sources. For instance, we all know a touchdown is worth more than a field goal, and when a team punts the ball they typically don’t get any points on that play. So, if we break down the data and visualize which coaches are more likely to go for it on 4th down, we might scrape out a few more fantasy points. Doug Pederson and John Harbaugh are two of the most aggressive coaches in the NFL when going for it on 4th Down, meanwhile, John Gruden and Bruce Arians are the most conservative. If you’ve got a flex on the Raiders or Buccaneers, it might be worth switching them out for someone on the Eagles or Ravens.

Alternatively, if you’re looking for a kicker to add to your lineup, the conservative teams might be a wise place to start. However, just because they’re more likely to kick the field goal, doesn’t mean they’ll make it. On top of identifying the teams most likely to kick the field goal, we need to find the players most likely to split the uprights. Luckily, we have the data visualizations for that too. Josh Lambo is one of the most accurate kickers in the league and happens to play for a coach in Doug Marrone who has a phobia of going for it on 4th down… a match made in heaven.

There are endless ways to “cheat” the system. It may take a little gumshoeing and analytical breakdown, but the numbers never lie. Bust out the spreadsheets and get crunching. The future is not so murky if you have the right optics.

Week 8 - Fate or Coincidence?

Last week we looked at trends that could be deciphered by any layperson if they had the tools. This week, we’re going to venture into realms less known. As Albus Dumbledore has said, “…we shall be leaving the firm foundation of fact and journeying together through the murky marshes of memory into thickets of wildest guesswork.” We’re going to be exploring what might only be explained by fate or destiny or maybe it's all just coincidence. Will traversing this foggy domain assist you in building your fantasy team? Probably not, but if you happen to have a player ripe to board the destiny train, cling on to him tightly.

These thoughts of remarkable chance all started with a very peculiar statistic involving the Green Bay Packers and daylight saving time. Including last week’s loss to 7.5-point underdog Minnesota, the Packers have lost their last 7 games on the week we turn back the clocks from daylight saving to standard time… The last time they won was in 2012 against Arizona who doesn’t observe daylight savings. So, what kind of guesswork or extrapolation can we make out of this phenomena? Green Bay is the constant and they perform worse when there is a dramatic change in when the sun sets. So should we avoid players born in Wisconsin on the weekend we turn the clocks back? Let's take a closer look... Melvin Gordon, born and raised in Kenosha, WI., rushed for a season low 26-yards last week and 0 touchdowns, curious. George Kittle, born in Madison, WI., had a season low 39-yards and will be on the IR for at least the next 2 weeks, very curious.

Another journey we might walk down is the search for the prodigal son on a given Sunday. If we travel back to January 8th, 2012, a young Tim “John 3:16” Tebow took the 8-8 Broncos and beat the 12-4 Steelers in the AFC Wild Card game. That in itself is pretty remarkable, but it gets way better. Tim “John 3:16” Tebow threw for 316 yards, he averaged 31.6 yards per completion, the Steelers time of possession was 31:06, Ben Roethlisberger threw the game’s only interception on 3rd and 16, and the Nielsen TV rating for the game was 31.6. Perhaps a higher power was at work here, and maybe we can tap into some other uber-Christian players and hope for a similar he-has-risen-game. Case Keenum, current back-up for the declining Cleveland Browns, might be a suitable candidate for a miracle game. He’s certainly thrown for 316+ yards in his past, but in his one appearance this year, he looked very unremarkable going 5 for 10 for 46 yards. Kirk Cousins might be another option. Cousins has already had one 316+ yard passing game in 2020. However, instead of looking like the second coming, he mixed in 3 interceptions which resulted in a loss to (0-5 at the time) Atlanta. So, he could still be due for that parting of the seas wonder game.

Exploring this hazy landscape of fate/destiny/magical coincidence (whatever you want to call it) is not for the timid. You must be willing to take risks that won’t be supported by statistics or grounded in logic. On top of that, you must also be patient and prepared to hold on to your beliefs despite evidence against it. For if you rush a miracle (man), you get rotten miracles.

Week 9 - What’s Next?

We’re a touch past halfway through the season, and I think some of us are surprised we’ve made it this far. Through 9 weeks of play, we’ve been on quite the emotional rollercoaster. The only thing keeping us grounded is Patrick Mahomes and his defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. Patrick “Ice Cold” Mahomes is averaging 25.9 Fantasy Points per Game, which is 3rd among active players just behind Kyler Murray (28.3 FPPG) and Russell Wilson (27.5 FPPG). But what sets Mahomes apart are his 25 touchdown passes to only 1 interception!... and it doesn’t hurt that the Chiefs look like an absolute juggernaut yet again this year and keenly prepared to defend their title.

Yet, I would be remiss if I failed to mention that there is a team with a better record than the Chiefs. The Pittsburgh Steelers are the last remaining undefeated, and they deserve our praise. However, it’s worth taking a closer look at who they’ve played. Of the eight teams the Steelers have clashed against, five have losing records and of those five, three are positioned near the very bottom of the NFL Power Rankings: the Cowboys (30th of 32), the Giants (28th of 32), and the Texans (26th of 32). The Steelers have thus far been blessed with a favorable schedule, and they’ve been smart enough to take advantage of that. Are they, as their record would indicate, the best team in the NFL? I’m leaning towards no, but there’s no denying they have a formidable defense (10.1 FPPG). The Steelers D is forcing almost two turnovers a game (1.88 avg.) and averaging 4 sacks a game.

As the season passes its zenith and begins to set, what can we look forward to and what predictions can be made? It doesn’t take much foresight to see that the Seattle Seahawks will continue to be the most entertaining team to watch the rest of this season with their electric offense and their miserable defense… is it too late to make all their remaining games Sunday night? I think it’s also safe to say that the Chiefs are the real deal. As for everything else?… about as clear as rear windows on cool summer nights up on Lover's Lane. The three-and-five Vikings who looked terrible in their first 6 games might actually be a team to watch out for. Conversely, the Bears who started five-and-one look like a team falling apart at the seams. You might also want to set your third eye upon some of these rookie quarterbacks. Justin Herbert (23.7 FPPG), Joe Burrow (17.9) and Tua Taovailoa (12.5) have been getting into their groove and starting to push their teams to new levels.

Much is still to be written before the season comes to an end, but one thing is for certain, this season will not be bound by the regular norms. Don’t be surprised if teams at the top of their division now, miss out on the playoffs come January. And don’t be surprised if some of these young, naïve quarterbacks decide that they’re role should be much bigger and make a dramatic run to the post-season… I’m looking at you two-and-six Justin Herbert who has only been outscored by his opponents by 11 total points.