Let's Make a Deal! (An analysis of 3 recently signed mega-deals in MLB)

So, now that 3 MLB clubs have doled out a combined $890 million over the next 13 years to Manny Machado, Bryce Harper, and Nolan Arenado, the question on everyone’s mind (other than what would you do with that kind of money), is who got the best deal?  The answer to that question depends on which side of the fence you sit, be it either the player’s side or the team’s side.  Fortunately, we here at The Halftime Snack get to sit on the fan side, and as such we can more reasonably analyze how each side fared because we have a rooting interest in both parties.  With that said, let’s dive into each of these deals and what they could potentially mean for the respective clubs and players long-term.

Manny Machado: Machado’s deal is the least interesting of the 3 mega deals to me, and I believe that’s because his interests were the easiest to align with a respective club of the 3 players in this discussion.  Essentially, I believe Machado’s primary motivation was to stay and play in southern California.  I think his preference would have been to stay with the Dodgers, but that those guys weren’t going to give him the term he got in San Diego. Once Machado knew the Dodgers weren’t going to get anywhere near the term and dollars required for him to even think about it, it was a simple process to sign with San Diego.  There is one aspect of Machado’s deal worth exploring in that  it includes an opt-out after 5 years, when he will be 31 years old.  From the player’s perspective, banking $150 million in the first 5 years of the deal with the option to explore free agency again is a good position for him.  At 31 years old, will Manny Machado be worth more than the 5 years and $150 million left on his current deal?  The answer to that question is maybe, but it is not a slam dunk, and to me that indicates that both sides felt the opt out was a fair compromise without too much teeth-gnashing in the negotiation.  From the team’s perspective, the Padres haven’t had a winning season in the past 8, so signing Machado gives the fan base something to get excited about and also a reason to spend their money, which is good.  Also from the team’s perspective, the 5-year window before the opt out provides a reasonable timeframe for the team to become a contender.  I won’t pretend to know much about the Padres long-term prospects for building a winner, but every front office would say that this move, coupled with their current players and prospects, bodes well for their future in terms of winning.  At the end of the day, I don’t blame Machado for wanting to play in SoCal, but I think his is the most vanilla deal of these three because he cares less about winning than Arenado does, and he cares less about having the richest contract in baseball than Harper does. 

Nolan Arenado: Even though Arenado’s deal is for the lowest total amount of money ($260 million), I believe it is the most player-friendly of the 3 mega deals in this analysis.  Why do I think that? I think that because the deal’s structure preserves Nolan’s ability to hit another home run financially, while also creating the perception that he is all in to win with the team that drafted and developed him.  Unlike Machado, Nolan’s primary motivation in his career is to win.  In the past, Nolan has voiced his frustration with the Rockies’ inability to field a consistent winner, and the thought that he would bolt for the more consistently deeper rosters found in his native California kept many Rockies fans up at night.  Fortunately for Rockies fans, and again unlike Machado, Nolan is also a good guy.  He’s loyal (to a point) to the club and city that have given him a second home, and that’s why he signed this deal.  The Rockies as they are currently constructed are a good team.  They have good players sprinkled throughout their lineup, a bona fide star in Charlie Blackmon, and a bona fide super nova in Nolan.  They also have an excellent starting rotation, to the point where many argue that Kyle Freeland, who finished 4th in Cy Young voting, is actually the second best pitcher on the team behind German Marquez.  The bullpen is, um, well-paid.  Seriously, bullpens aren’t that important, right?  But the point here related to Nolan’s contract is that the 3-year window before his opt out should give him a real chance to win with the only club he’s ever known, and that story would overflow with mile high magic for both Nolan and Rockies fans.  No matter what happens, the potential to opt out after 3 years should give Nolan the opportunity to sign another mega deal if he so chooses.  He’ll be 30 years old then, and it’s difficult to imagine his production falling off a cliff that would seriously devalue him.  So, Nolan signs the deal with the most flexibility, and looks like the best overall human being here by signing an extension with the goal of helping the Rockies win the world series.  Well done, mate.

Bryce Harper: Harper’s deal, to me, is the easiest of the 3 mega deals to figure out.  Simply put, Bryce wanted to sign the richest contract in baseball history, and finding the team who would accommodate that wish was the most important factor to him.  Enter the Philadelphia Phillies, who not coincidentally just signed a mega local TV deal of their own, and you have a bingo.  From Bryce’s perspective, it was as simple as waiting to see if Machado would eclipse Giancarlo (Mike?) Stanton’s $325 million deal, and then making sure he topped Stanton’s number when Machado fell short of it.  From the Phillies’ perspective, they could afford to dish out this kind of cash with their new tv deal, and now they should have a lineup that is capable of winning the NL East depending on how the rest of the club performs.  Interestingly, Harper has no opt-out, which I suspect the Phillies withheld in exchange for guaranteeing Harper the most money in MLB history.  Bryce gets what he wants in terms of being at the top of Mt. Cash, and the Phillies feel as if Harper will pay for himself with ad revenue generated as part of their new tv deal. 

Summary: Alright, so what did we learn here today?  We learned that all 3 of these guys are going to be filthy rich for a long time (good for them, they deserve it).  We also learned that Manny Machado is willing to put up with the Padres’ mediocrity in exchange for that SoCal sunshine, Bryce Harper is a greedy egomaniac, and Nolan Arenado is both a decent human being AND a shrewd businessman.  Sounds about right to me.